For more than two months, the price of bitcoin has been staying close to $9,000 level. Its volatility is decreasing all the time. More often experts say that this calm can be exploded at any moment.
They are waiting for a rally or a collapse. And all this is against the backdrop of the protracted beyond all expectations pandemic and “Black Lives Matter” revolution in the United States. In addition, in mid-May, there a BTC halving event happened, and bitcoin rise was also expected. But it is not rising. Why?
As for halving, cryptanalysts notice: the rise was on expectations, as it happens in traditional fiat markets. Indeed, from March to mid-May, BTC rose from $5,225 to $9,923, almost 90%. “Are you guys overslept?” – sarcastically notes on his twitter the bitcoin whale known as JOE007.
So many people complain about lack of halving rally, this really baffles me. There was like a 150% BTC price appreciation since mid-March upto mid-May halving, did you guys miss it or something? pic.twitter.com/szduddztKL
— ʲᵒᵉ🔴🔴7 (@J0E007) July 4, 2020
But why did bitcoin not continue to rise now? Until recently, most of the experts said that BTC is “a digital gold”, that is, a protective asset in case of turbulence in the markets. And now it is time for turbulence.
In fact, the situation is much more complicated. Despite the actual decline in the global economy, stock markets are growing. According to the International Labor Organization, a pandemic caused a loss of 400 million jobs. The US unemployment rate is 13%, which is more than in times of the Great Depression. But the US Federal Reserve manages to defuse the crisis through new cash injections, printing almost $4 trillion.
The proven quantitative easing method is still working. But it is obvious that economic growth through lending has a limit, after which there will be a collapse. And then it is likely that investors will migrate from fiat markets to cryptocurrencies, and above all – to bitcoin. During last months they are gradually investing in BTC and gold, the price of which since January rose from $1,566 to $1,787, by 14%. BTC for this period rose from $7,340 to $9,242, that is, almost by 26%.
According to the June Crypto Research Report, the target crypto-assets market is $ 212 trillion. All world fiat currencies today amount to $126 trillion, plus $42 trillion, the sum of consumer loans. The report concludes: If Bitcoin will penetrate 10% of this market in 10 years, which is likely, then its price will be $397,000 by 2030. It cannot be ruled out that moving towards this target will begin right now, after the collapse of markets as a result of the largest stimulation program conducted by the Federal Reserve.