On Thanksgiving, bitcoin unexpectedly rose 5%, followed by the leading altcoins. However, the growth may be short-lived.
According to the firm Skew, which researches bitcoin derivatives, the options market is skewed towards put options. Now the excess of put options over call options has reached a six-week high of 3%. Earlier, call options prevailed; in early November, their excess was 5%. Skew tends to explain changes in the derivatives market with the plans of a faster end to two-year stimulus program in the United States.
In November Fed started cutting back the monthly bond-buying program. This will lead to the strengthening of the dollar and to the depreciation of bitcoin, the researchers say. The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s value against leading fiat currencies, rose 3% after the release of high US inflation data on November 10. Then the drop of BTC began.
Bitcoin is ending the week with vague signals as to where it will move. But Ethereum is showing signs of a rally, according to popular analyst Cred. The expert notes that the leading cryptocurrency has consolidated in the $55K – $60K range, and this consolidation could mean that BTC is losing initiative and becomes a reflection of the altcoins, “a moon”. Cred states:
– … The weekly close didn’t offer much signal. One of the better outcomes to this consolidation would be Bitcoin / dollar chop into altcoin moon. It likely wouldn’t be long-lived, but the opportunities that arise in those circumstances are very attractive.
Ethereum looks stronger than bitcoin and promises a stronger rally. Cred believes that a breakout to $4610 is very likely. He also points to the good positions of the recently popular altcoins Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX). They look strong “due to the lack of high time frame pullbacks”.
However, it may be a mistake to underestimate the position of the king of cryptocurrencies. Some news this week may back its price. The research platform Blockdata in a new report informs that the bitcoin network has outperformed PayPal in terms of transaction volume, and may outperform MasterCard as early as 2026.
This year, the quarterly volume of transactions on the bitcoin network averaged $489 billion, while PayPal has this figure of about $302 billion. At the same time, MasterCard processes $1.8 trillion, and VISA – $3.2 trillion per quarter. Blockdata’s experts say: if bitcoin rises in price at the same rate as in 2021, it will equal MasterCard by 2026. On November 24, a transaction in the amount of $853 million (15,000 BTC) with a commission of only $0.9 took place on the bitcoin network.